Ghana’s oil production is expected to peak in 2027 at 297,190 barrels per day as the field reaches plateau.
According to Fitch Solutions, research arm of ratings agency, Fitch, this is possible when Pecan oil field to be operated by Aker Energy begins production in 2025.
The field is an ultra-deepwater play in the DWT/CTP block offshore Ghana and is estimated to contain about 334 million of barrels of oil equivalents.
Having been initially expected to require an investment of $4.4bn, Aker Energy and its partners are now aiming to reduce the capex [Capital Expenditure Project] needed for the project. They aim to find a development concept with a sustainable break-even price, should a low oil price environment continue.
“Due to the project revaluations, we do not expect to see Final Investment Decision (FID) until 2022. Following first oil in 2025, we expect Ghana’s oil production will peak in 2027 at 297,190b/d, as the field reaches plateau”, Fitch Solutions emphasized.
However, it said further delays to the Pecan project reaching FID in 2022 will shift the peak production to the tail end of 10-year forecast period.
But, additional opportunities at the country’s oil fields provide some risk to the longer-term outlook for the upstream oil, unless technical issues are averted.
“Overall, we expect to see sustained output from Ghana’s oil fields over our long-term forecast, owing to increased spending and the pending investment decision for the Pecan Field. The development of additional reserves offers significant upside to this forecast”, Fitch Solutions emphasized.
As a result of the current ongoing and planned developments, there is much potential for Ghana’s upstream sector, the international research institution said.
Presently, the Jubilee and TEN fields are producing about 190,000 barrels of oil per day for the country.
