IMF is projecting a growth rate of 4.4 per cent for Ghana by the end of 2025.
This was captured in the IMF’s Global Economic Outlook released on the sidelines of the Annual World Bank/ IMF Spring Meetings in Washington DC USA, on April 16, 2024.
The IMF in the report also projected that Ghana will end 2024 with a growth rate of 2.8 per cent. This is similar to what the government had forecast in the 2024 budget.
However, the World Bank believes that growth will hit 2.9 per cent by the end of this year.
Even though there is no official reason assigned for this projection, persons close to the IMF have told JOYBUSINESS the forecast is based on reforms that Ghana is undertaking under the IMF programme which is going a long way to support this economic recovery.
The IMF also believes that if Ghana sticks to the programme conditions, recovery could be faster than earlier projected.
IMF and World Bank upbeat about Ghana’s Economic recovery
The 4.4 Percent Growth Rate that the IMF forecasts for Ghana is “way higher” than the 3.3 per cent that the World Bank has projected for the country in 2025, in its Africa Pulse Report released in April 2024.
For some analysts, it appears the IMF is more optimistic about the recovery of Ghana’s economy from next year, compared to the World Bank’s projection for 2025.
However, the World Bank believes Ghana’s GDP growth rate will hit more than 5 per cent in 2026, returning to the Pre- pre-pandemic era.
The IMF has been forced to revise its projection for Ghana, as the FUND had argued that the Ghanaian economy is showing signs of strong recovery after Ghana signed up for the IMF programme.
The government, on the other hand, is hoping to achieve more than a 3 per cent growth rate in 2025.
In 2023, Ghana’s economy expanded by 2.9%, according to data released by the Ghana Statistical Service.
IMF and World Bank concerns
Speaking in Washington DC USA during the launch of the Global Economic Outlook, Director of Research, Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas was worried about how the current geopolitical tension in the Middle East could present some challenges for the economic recovery of some developing countries including Ghana, if it doesn’t simmer down anytime soon.
He also noted that election-related spending may pose a threat to the recovery of Ghana and other developing countries.
The World Bank Chief Economist mentioned that the GDP growth projection will also depend on Ghana staying on the recovery path by implementing reforms that will aid its recovery.
On how to sustain the recovery, Dr Dabalen said it is important that Ghana stays on the reform path, and maintains fiscal discipline and debt transparency.
Source: George Wiafe