Indications are that the pump prices of petrol, diesel and LPG are likely to go up in the next Window beginning 16 February 2024.
The imminent increases are largely due to increases in price of petrol on the international market by about 1.75% whilst diesel goes up by 6.02% with crude price increasing by 1.39% from the mean price of $81.30/barrel to $82.43/barrel.
The forex or dollar exchange rate has also increased by 2.16% from a previous average of GH¢12.01603 to GH¢12.4230 per $1.
Added to the above international price changes is the increase in local taxes of UPPF, Primary Distribution Margin (PDM) and BOST margin to the tune of 20 P on a litre of petrol and diesel by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA)
The following shall therefore form the basis of projected mean retail prices for Petroleum products to within ±5% of COPEC’s projection starting from Friday, 16 February 2024.
Petrol .. GH¢12.65/L
Diesel .. GH¢13.90/L
The Mean Price for Petrol and Diesel..GHS13.28/L
LPG.. GH¢13.24/kg
Thus, a 14.5 kg LPG cylinder, is expected to be selling at GH¢192.02 within the window.
PETROL
With the international price increasing from $800.84/MT to $814.85/MT (1.75%), the retail price works up to GH¢12.65/L
Thus, retail price of Petrol is expected to increase by 6.63% of the current mean Pump retail price of GH¢11.87/L, to close selling between GHS12.02/L and GHS13.29/L . Thus, within ±5% range of COPEC’s projection.
DIESEL
With the International benchmark price increasing from $807.14/MT to $855.70/MT (6.02%), the expected mean retail pump price for the next window shall be GH¢13.90/L
Diesel is expected to increase in price by about 8.18% of the current Mean Pump retail price of GH¢12.85/L to be selling between GH¢13.21/L and GH¢14.60/L . Thus, within ±5% range of COPEC’s projection.
Mean Price of Petrol and Diesel
The Mean price of Petrol and Diesel for the coming window per the figures shall be 13.28/L with mean pump retail price range of GH¢12.61/L and GH¢13.94/L, within ±5% of COPEC’s prediction.
LPG
With the international benchmark price increasing from $535.41/MT to $582.50/MT (8.80%) the projected retail price of LPG is expected to be averagely at GH¢13.24/kg.
Thus, within ±5% error, LPG is expected to be selling between _GH¢12.58/kg and GHS13.90/ kg.
Remarks:
- COPEC maintains that, Government should desist from the practice of increasing taxes and margins on all petroleum products as it is doing currently, this practice of sneaking in tax increases on the price build up only further increases the economic pressure on Ghanaians.
- The new Finance Minister is further encouraged to see lpg as a cleaner transition product neccesary for a cleaner environment and to do all it can to bring down taxes on LPG or to subsidise the price of LPG to promote and encourage its nationwide accessibility and usage.
- The total taxes and levies represents about 23.87% of the retail prices of Petrol and Diesel and though statistically reasonable when translated to real or nominal values adds a lot of pressure to the consumers of petroleum products and as such any further increases can only have dire consequences on cost of living for the people generally.
- We further appeal to the government to speed up processes to getting the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) back on stream if any in order to avoid or reduce the importation of finished products, with associated fuel contamination.
Signed.
Duncan Amoah.