Nigeria goes to the polls today with a total number of 93,469,008 registered voters, 176,846 polling units, 1,491 electoral constituencies, 774 local government areas and 18 political parties.
The breakdown of the eligible voters by geo-political zones is as follows;
North-West= 22.25million
North-East= 12.54million
North-Central=15.36million
South-West=17.95million
South-East=10.90million
South-South=14.44million
With the delimitation data for the 2023 general election given above, the election will be fiercely contested by three candidates and political parties i.e Ashiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of All Progressive Congress(APC), Atiku Abubakar of People’s Democratic Party(PDP) and Peter Obi of Labour Party(LP).
*The* *Permutations*
Among the three frontline candidates, it’s believed that it will be a contest between Bola Tinubu of APC and Atiku Abubakar of PDP because the two represent the two major foundational political parties in Nigeria, whiles others also believe it will be a straight contest between Bola Tinubu of APC and Peter Obi of LP due to the strong emerging force.
In the account or equation given, Bola Tinubu remains in the middle of the joint sets with two(2) score points whiles, while Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi with one(1) point each.
*Why* *Bola* *Tinubu?*
Tinubu because he is the most experienced among the three. Commands the Yorubas the second-largest tribe in Nigeria. Commands the South-west part of Nigeria of which the largest and most populated city, Lagos is part. Incumbency advantage is on his side. Has the most number of governors in Nigeria to influence the votes from various federal states.
*Odds* *against* *Bola* *Tinubu*
The fact that he’s too old, health-wise, he’s not strong. His decision of going for a “Muslim-Muslim” ticket. That may not have a “major” effect, due to the dominance of Muslims as the most dominant religion in Nigeria.
A major factor affecting him has to do with the current economic crisis especially, at a time when Nigerians are finding it so difficult to withdraw their deposits/savings from their bank accounts due to the new policy by the central bank of Nigeria. Many believe that the current President, Mohammed Buhari is behind this development, and allegedly think it’s because the current president is not in support of Tinubu’s bid to become the next president of Nigeria.
*Why* *Atiku* *Abubakar?*
He’s also an experienced politician. He represents and commands the largest tribe in Nigeria, “Hausa”. He commands the northern part and some parts of southern Nigeria. He represents the largest opposition party in Nigeria. His decision to go for a “Muslim-Christian” community.
*Odds* *against* *Atiku*
Some believe he has a bad record as the former vice president of Nigeria under the presidency of Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999-2007. Not doing enough as flagbearer of the major opposition political party to give the candidate of the ruling party a run for his money. He’s not the youth’s favourite.
*Why* *Peter* *Obi*
Obi because the youth are calling for a youthful candidate. Has command of the Christian community and south-south part of Nigeria. His decision to run on a “Christian-Muslim” ticket. Some Nigerians believe this is the time to try an emerging force in the person of Peter Obi of the Labour Party(LP). Among the three major candidates, Peter Obi is more visible on social media where the majority of youth are. The youth according to the National Commissioner at INEC in charge of information and voter education, Mr Festitus Okoye stated at the commission’s engagement with identified groups, the youth constitutes the majority of the total registered voters, i.e 48million, representing about 51.35% of the total registered voters.
*Odds* *against* *Obi*
He doesn’t represent the major tribe and religious communities in Nigeria. Again, he represents an emerging political party with minimum numbers as compared to the two major foundational political parties in Nigeria, the APC and PDP.
Aside from the major factors cited above, there are other key factors;
1. Money.
2. Best policies for the intellectual and politically inclined group to base their electoral decision on.
3. As well as the ability of the eligible electorates to go to their polling units in their local government areas with their Permanent Voter’s Card(PVC).
*Conclusion*
Based on my findings, candidate Ashiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of All Progressive Congress(APC) stands tall and remains the masses’ favourite at the moment. Should anything cost his victory, it should be the current economic crisis in the country.
And on the back of the economic crisis, Nigerians will be compelled to call for a change thus, the coming back of the People’s Democratic Party(PDP) and on an unlikely event that Nigerians want a total change of government from the major foundational political parties, APC and PDP, and the fact that the Nigerian youths want the two old folks out, then Peter Obi of the Labour Party(LP) will emerge a winner. A win for Obi and his Labour Party is a win for the youth of Nigeria because the youths are the advocates of his candidature.
We wish our African compatriots well in their general election tomorrow, GOD willing. May the best candidate win free and fair and in peace.
References
Thanks to my good old friends in Nigeria for their great input in these findings;
1. Ajiboye Temitope
2. Peace Adewale
3. Grace Ajayi
4. Alabi Funmilayo
5. Sarah
And a very big thank you to my mentor, *Krobea* *Kwabena* *Asante*, researcher at the office of the Vice-President of the Republic of Ghana for his guidance.
Chief Of Staff (Jamasi/Tabre Dehye3) writes…..